The PCT 2020 Survey: NOGO vs. Hikers

The Pacific Crest Trail in 2020 has given us a group of hikers we don't typically see in a “normal” thru-hiking season – the NOGO hiker. Yes, there's now NOBO (northbound), SOBO (southbound), YOYO (both-bound), and NOGO (nowhere-bound).

In fact, we have data from nearly twice as many people who canceled their hikes (NOGO) compared to the data we have from people who chose to hike the PCT this year (291 vs 163). I thought, given that we don't usually have these two groups, it would be interesting to dive in and look at what (if any) differences exist between these two groups of hikers.

This post will cover all the same categories covered in the PCT Survey Part I: NOGO post, except instead of summarizing all data collected, we'll be separating those who hiked from those who canceled their hikes to see how the two groups compare. Why are we making this comparison? Because science (and also, because we can).

Table of Contents

1 Demographics

2 Where Hikers Are From

3 Hiker Jobs & Working Conditions

4 Hiker Experience

5 Planning & Training

6 Money Spent on Gear

7 Future PCT Hikes

8 Conclusion & Takeaways

9 Support the PCT Survey

10 Pacific Crest Trail Survey Collection

Demographics

Here we look at hiker gender, age, race, and education and how they differ between hikers who chose to hike the Pacific Crest Trail in 2020 and the NOGO contingency who canceled their hikes.

Gender

The gender distribution of hikers who hiked and those who canceled their hikes was nearly identical. Approximately 59% male, 40% female, and 1% non-binary or genderqueer.

NOGO Gender

• 58.4% Male
• 40.9% Female
• 0.7% Non-Binary

Hiker Gender

• 59.6% Male
• 39% Female
• 0.7% Genderqueer

Age

The average age of both hikers and NOGO hikers this year was 39. However, the median age of the NOGO hikers was 33 vs. 34 of the hikers on the trail. Not much of a difference as each group also had a standard deviation of 14.

NOGO Age

• < 20 | 0.7%
• 20-24 | 8.8%
• 25-29 | 24.9%
• 30-34 | 21.8%
• 35-39 | 7.7%
• 40-49 | 10.2%
• 50-59 | 11.2%
• 60-69 |12.6%
• > 70 | 2.1%

Average age: 39
Median age: 33
σ: 14

Hiker Age

• < 20 | 1.9%
• 20-24 | 13.9%
• 25-29 | 27.8%
• 30-34 | 16.7%
• 35-39 | 13.9%
• 40-49 | 8.3%
• 50-59 | 13.0%
• 60-69 | 4.6%
• >70 | 0%

Average age: 39
Median age: 34
σ: 14

Race

As with gender and age above, there wasn't much change in the race distribution between hikers who canceled and those who hiked – still a bunch of white people.

NOGO Race

• 92.7% White
• 2.4% Asian
• 2.4% 2+ Races
• 1.1% Hispanic or Latino
• 0.4% American Indian/Alaska Native
• 1.1% No answer

Hiker Race

• 88.8% White
• 3.7% Asian
• 2.8% 2+ Races
• 2.8% Hispanic or Latino
• 0.9% Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander
• 0.9% No answer

Education

Education is the first place we see a small difference between NOGO hikers and those who decided to hike. Overall, the NOGO hikers had a higher degree of education than the hikers on the trail this year.

NOGO Education

• 0.7% < 12th grade
• 2.5% High school
• 9.4% Some college
• 5.8% Associate's
• 57.6% Bachelor's
• 7.6% Master's
• 6.8% MBA
• 4.3% PhD
• 1.1% JD
• 0.4% DDS
• 4% MD

Hiker Education

• 1.9% < 12th grade
• 10.4% High school
• 17% Some college
• 8.5% Associate's
• 39.6% Bachelor's
• 5.7% Master's
• 4.7% MBA
• 4.7% PhD
• 1.9% JD
• 0% DDS
• 4.7% MD

Where Hikers Are From

A total of 28 countries were represented by the survey respondents, but on-trail we find hikers from just 16: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and the United States.

As far as domestic hikers go, we have survey respondents from 37 US States, but only 27 represented on the trail: AK, AZ, CA, CO, DC, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, MA, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, TX, VA, WA, and WI.

Here's the domestic/international breakdown of the NOGO and the Hikers.

NOGO Country

• 58.4% Domestic
• 41.6% International

Hiker Country

• 83.8% Domestic
• 16.2% International

Hiker Jobs & Working Conditions

How people are able to take time off for a multi-month hike across the country is something a lot of people find perplexing.

There wasn't much a difference in the working conditions for those who hiked and those who didn't, except for a lot more NOGO hikers having taken a sabbatical and a lot more hikers being unemployed.

Hiker Experience

Many of the survey respondents this year didn't hike the PCT, but that doesn't mean they weren't planning their hikes for some time before COVID-19 shut the world down.

Here's a look at what the 2020 class looked like during their “Planning a PCT Hike” phase. This section examines first-time hikers, hiker experience level, and other trails hiked.

First long-distance hike?

I asked the distance of their longest hike to date (pre-PCT) – more on the specifics of this below. I used 100 mi / 160 km to be considered a long-distance hike (sorry, Wonderland Trail hikers).

A higher percentage of hikers with experience hiking another long-distance trail were more likely to have canceled their hikes – almost 50% of hikers who canceled their hikes have hiked another long-distance trail. By contrast, nearly two-thirds (65%) of those who chose to hike were on their first long-distance hike.

NOGO

• 52% First long-distance hike
• 48% Previous long-distance hike completed

Average longest trail hiked: 469
Median: 100

Hikers

• 65% First long-distance hike
• 35% Previous long-distance hike completed

Average longest trail hiked: 322
Median: 70

Hiker Experience Level

In addition to asking hikers which other trails they've hiked, I asked them to rate their experience level on a scale from one to ten.

The two groups of hikers, NOGO and those who hiked, had similar levels of reported experience, but the NOGO contingent appears to have been slightly more experienced than the hikers on the PCT.

NOGO Average experience: 6.13
NOGO Median experience: 6
σ: 2.6

Hiker Average experience: 5.77
Hiker Median experience: 6
σ: 2.74

Planning & Training

A lot of hikers invest a lot of time in training as part of their planning stage (a wise investment of time). Here's how many of each hiker group trained and how they rated their fitness levels pre-PCT.

Nearly 20% more of the NOGO hikers trained for their PCT hikes (85% vs. 67%) which presumably would mean that they had invested more time in their pre-hike prep than the people who chose to hike. But more on that below.

NOGO

• 85% Trained
• 15% Did not train

Hikers

• 67% Trained
• 33% Did not train

Pre-hike Fitness

In addition to asking whether hikers trained, I also asked survey respondents to rate their level of fitness. It turns out that the NOGO hikers were a bit more fit than those who hiked (at the start of the trail). Due to the extra training we saw above? Probably? We can only speculate.

NOGO

• Average: 6.07
• Median: 6
• σ: 1.53

Hikers

• Average: 5.99
• Median: 6
• σ: 1.71

Planning

Many PCT hikers spend almost as much (or even more) time planning their hikes as they do actually hiking their hikes. I know, planning can be fun. However, don't let planning fool you into thinking you have anything figured out prior to hitting the trail. Most people's plans will fall to pieces shortly after beginning their hikes.

Here's how much time NOGO hikers and people who hit the trail in 2020 spent planning before their hikes. The short of it? NOGO hikers spent more time planning their hikes than those who actually hiked.

NOGO

• Average: 6.29
• Median: 7
• σ: 2.15

Hikers

• Average: 5.82
• Median: 6
• σ: 2.48

Money Spent on Gear

The question of what gear to bring on a Pacific Crest Trail thru-hike weighs heavily on the minds of many hikers. If this is the kind of information you have come here seeking, I encourage you to check out the PCT Survey Gear Guide. Interestingly enough, the division of hikers by whether or not they canceled their hikes (which as far as the question of money spent on gear goes seems to be completely irrelevant) yields quite similar results.

NOGO

• Average: $1,617
• Median: $1,500
• σ: $1,199

Hikers

• Average: $1,636
• Median: $1,450
• σ: $1,307

Future PCT Hikes

I covered this in the first installment of the 2020 survey, but I feel that the information bears repeating here. As a large number of people canceled their hikes in 2020, the demand for permits in 2021 will likely be higher than it would be in a “normal 2021” thru-hiking season (and if you're reading this on the day it's published, then you should know that today is the day permits are being issued for the 2021 PCT thru-hiking season).

NOGO: Do you plan to hike the PCT in the future?

• 49.8% Yes, 2021
• 15.4% Yes, 2022
• 0.7% Yes, 2023
• 0.4% Yes, 2024
• 29.8% Yes, one day
• 1.1% Maybe
• 2.8% No

Conclusion & Takeaways

No, this information is not going to help you hike the Pacific Crest Trail. However, 2020 gave us two unique groups of hikes that I thought would be interesting to compare. So what are the final results of this comparison?

The gender, age, and race of the two groups were nearly the same. However, the NOGO group of hikers had more total years of education, on average, than those who hiked. A total of 85% of international hikers canceled their hikes, whereas 59% of domestic hikers canceled their hikes.

More PCT hikers were unemployed and more NOGO hikers were on sabbatical. Overall, the NOGO hikers were more experienced, had hiked more miles, trained more, and spent more time planning than those who hiked in 2020. As far as gear goes, the two groups spent approximately the same.

Support the PCT Survey

I get a lot of people asking every year how to support the surveys and beyond sharing them with your close-knit bubble of weird hiker friends, the best way to support the Pacific Crest Trail is to donate on Patreon. You'll get access to exclusive posts, discount codes, live streams, and super extra cool stickers so that everyone will know how cool you are.

If you're not into Patreon, that's cool, you can always Venmo @halfwayanywhere or PayPal [email protected]

This is not expected. The data collected in the PCT Survey will always be free and accessible to everyone who wants/needs it. That said, your support is very much appreciated and helps to pay the website (and survey) bills.